28 June

@lyle_h_hill

28 June

Good morning,

Janet Yellen, Chair of the Federal Reserve, and former Secretary of State Henry Kissinger, were both in London yesterday to speak at events in the capital. The talks provided a rare glimpse into the thoughts of two of America's most prominent public servants from the past and present.

Speaking to an audience of academics at the British Academy President's Lecture, Janet Yellen was upbeat and optimistic about the state of the global economy. When asked whether she believed there would be another financial crash on the scale of 2008, Yellen responded that she does not expect to see another crash for "as long as she lives".

In a not so obscure warning shot to Donald Trump, Yellen argued that it was the reforms brought in following the crash of 2008 that have been sufficient to prevent another slump of a similar scale. Trump is currently proposing to strip back these regulations to business in an attempt to grow the economy and create jobs.

In contrast, Mark Carney was not as positive yesterday about our financial future, suggesting banks are "forgetting the lessons of the past" and a sharp increase in car loans and credit card debt risks a new financial crisis. According to Carney, banks were making it too easy to borrow money under the assumption low interest rates would continue indefinitely.

Henry Kissinger was speaking to a different audience on a different subject, but agreed with Carney’s sentiments about forgetting lessons of the past. The controversial former secretary of state to Richard Nixon was delivering the opening address at the Centre for Policy Studies Margaret Thatcher Conference on Security.

He argued that the world order of states competing and co-operating with each other within a mutual framework of broadly agreed rules was crumbling, and that the world faced large geo-political challenges with Russia, China and the Middle East.

He was also critical of Nato, arguing it had become a security guarantee provided by America which European states can hide behind. According to Kissinger, it has lost its strategic edge and must continually re-evaluate its mission.

With the world increasingly uncertain for many, now is the time for contributions from experienced public servants. Perhaps we haven’t had enough of experts just yet.

News

Many countries across the world were hit by one of the largest known cyberattacks yesterday. Russia, Britain and the US were all disrupted. The attack disabled government departments, company systems and the radiation monitoring system in Chernobyl. US intelligence believes North Korea is behind the attack.

Cabinet tensions over Brexit became clear yesterday as Philip Hammond mocked foreign secretary Boris Johnson at a CDU Economic Council meeting in Berlin. The chancellor said he would try to "discourage talk of cake among my colleagues", in reference to Johnson's "have our cake and eat it" remark. Meanwhile, David Davis was criticising Hammond, arguing that the chancellor had said “a number of things that are not quite consistent with each other”.

Labour has announced it will table an amendment to the Queen's Speech in a bid to end the public sector pay cap and secure funding for the emergency services. Labour are attempting to bring an end to the era of austerity and believe that forcing a vote in parliament will be a "test case" of MPs’ willingness to end the policy.

Business & Economy

The European Commission announced yesterday that it would fine Google €2.42 billion for illegally promoting its own internet shopping comparison service. This is the largest antitrust fine ever given by the European Commission for distorting the market and Google said it would consider all options before deciding if it will appeal.

Emmanuel Macron is making a bid for London's best science and technology businesses early in his presidency. The French leader has touted France's generous tax benefits in research and development and has also argued France needs to be open to foreigners with “brains and money” in order to stimulate its sluggish economy.

According to the British Social Attitudes survey, 48% of Britons back higher tax and spend, marking the highest level of support against austerity since 2004. 44% said they would like to see taxes stay the same, and only 4% said they would like to see them cut. For the first time in 30 years, pensions are no longer the public's top priority for welfare spending, instead support for the disabled tops the list.

Markets

The FTSE 100 closed relatively unchanged yesterday at 7,434.36. Debenhams slipped amid reports of "volatile trading" as like-for-like sales dropped 0.9%. The department store finished down 2.3%.

Meanwhile, at a question and answer event in London, U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen confirmed that to achieve the Fed's goals, interest rates would be raised gradually, but to levels that remained low by historical standards.

On the currency markets, against the dollar the pound was up 0.5% to $1.27870. However, slipped against the euro by 0.8% to €1.12910.

Finals
Dixons Carphone, Handa Trust, Hayward Tyler Group, Stagecoach Group

AGMs
7Digital Group, Air Partner, BNN Technology, Gulfsands Petroleum, Impallam Group, Medica Group, Norman Broadbent, President Energy, Synairgen

UK Economic Announcements
(11:00) CBI Distributive Trades Surveys

Int. Economic Announcements
(09:00) M3 Money Supply (EU)
(12:00) MBA Mortgage Applications (US)
(15:00) Pending Homes Sales (US)
(15:30) Crude Oil Inventories (US)

Columns of Note

Roger Boyes, writing in The Times, argues that Britain has a duty to speak out regarding the situation in Hong Kong. Boyes believes Britain is uniquely placed to help the pro-democracy rebels, but should not back a hasty and reckless attempt at separation.

Con Coughlin, writing in The Telegraph, discusses the British Navy's new aircraft carrier, HMS Queen Elizabeth. He argues that while the ship is welcome, it will not be of much use if the rest of the armed forces are not adequately equipped to do their duty.

Did you know?

New Mexico State University's first graduating class in 1893 had only one student, but he was shot and killed before graduation.

Parliamentary highlights

TODAY

House of Commons

Oral questions

Northern Ireland

Prime Minister's Question Time

Debate on the Address

Health, Social Care and Security

House of Lords

Oral questions

Measures to combat terrorist and extremist propaganda released through multimedia channels - Lord Naseby
Introduction of the government's industrial strategy - Lord Haskel

Debate on the Address

Exiting the European Union - Baroness Anelay of St Johns, Lord Keen of Elie

Scottish Parliament

Portfolio Questions

Communities, Social Security and Equalities

Scottish Government Debate: Education Governance Next Steps

TOMORROW

House of Commons

Oral Questions

Culture, Media and Sport (including Topical Questions), Attorney General

Debate on the Address

Economy and Jobs

House of Lords

Oral Questions

Number of unaccompanied child refugees have entering the UK under the Immigration Act 2016 or the Dublin III regulations - Lord Dubs

Consultation on opening senior police posts to individuals without previous professional police experience - Lord Blair of Boughton

Commitment to equality in the light of the hung parliament - Baroness Burt of Solihull

Scottish Parliament

First Minister's Questions

Debate on the Commission on Parliamentary Reform's Report on the Scottish Parliament