31 May

lyle_h_hill

31 May

Good morning,

A YouGov poll, released yesterday, has suggested that Theresa May will suffer the embarrassment of losing the overall majority won by her predecessor David Cameron only two years ago.
 

The poll is based on new modelling by the company, which uses a constituency-by-constituency estimate to predict the overall result. Allowing for a large margin of error, the results suggest that the Conservatives will lose 20 seats and Labour may gain 30, leaving May not just short of a landslide victory, but also short of a simple majority in parliament.
 

YouGov’s estimate is in sharp contrast to other pollsters, such as Comres, which still have the Tories on course to win a majority of over 100 seats.
 

As a small consolation to Theresa May, the poll will allow her to more credibly campaign on the premise that Corbyn as prime minister is not only unthinkable, but may not be as unlikely as many people had thought.
 

But the bad news yesterday was not limited to the Conservatives. Jeremy Corbyn struggled in an interview on Women’s Hour, during which the Labour leader seemed to forget the costings of his flagship free child care policy for children aged two to four.
 

He was accused by presenter Emma Barnett of attempting to log into his iPad to obtain the costings. Disturbingly, following the interview Barnett was subjected to anti-Semitic abuse from Twitter trolls, who accused her of being a “Zionist shill”.
 

Today in the campaign, both parties have retreated to their relative comfort zones. Jeremy Corbyn is focusing on more funding for the NHS and Theresa May is touting the Conservative’s record on the economy.

 

NEWS

The Nuffield Trust has warned that tens of thousands of expat pensioners living across the EU may return to the UK in order to use the NHS, unless a deal is struck to allow them to continue to receive care abroad. The think tank has warned that the cost of treating them on home soil could double to £1 billion.

The growing feud between Germany and the USA shows no sign of abating, as President Trump tweeted his displeasure at the US trade deficit between the countries and Germany’s contributions to Nato. The relationship between the US and Germany worsened following last week’s Nato summit and G7 meeting.
 

Transport for London is expected to invite bids from telecoms companies to install equipment in the London Underground. Passengers will now be able to use their phones whilst travelling, something which has been available to commuters in New York, Toyko, Seoul, Berlin and Paris for years.
 

Ariana Grande has announced she will play a charity concert in Manchester on Sunday to aid the grieving families and those injured in the attack. She will be joined by a host of famous celebrities including Justin Bieber and Coldplay.

 


BUSINESS AND ECONOMY

 

The Head of the European Space Agency has warned that UK companies who wish to take part in large EU-funded space programmes may have to set up subsidiaries across Europe. The UK is a partner on EU-funded programmes until 2019, but has been warned that it must prepare for what follows if it is to continue to benefit from the scheme.


The Irish Government has announced it plans to float Allied Irish Banks for an estimated €12 billion. If the plan goes ahead, it will be one of the largest initial public offerings in London in recent years. The Irish government owns 99.9% of AIB following its nationalisation in 2010.


A former employee at Ladbrokes Coral has claimed the bookmaker attempted to bend rules designed to tackle money laundering and prevent problem gamblers from betting in an attempt to increase profits. Specifically, the whistleblower argued that the company encouraged customers to use fixed odds betting terminals.

The UK exported a record amount of food and drink in the first quarter of 2017, according to the Food and Drink Federation. The rise was driven by a large increase in salmon sales, that leapt by 50% in terms of value and 13% by volume. Total food and drink exports grew by 8.3% year on year to £4.9 billion.

 

MARKETS

 

The FTSE 100 fell yesterday after closing at a record high on Friday. The index dropped by 24 points to close at 7,522.9, led primarily by a drop in the price of International Airlines Group, the parent company of British Airways.

IAG fell sharply in morning trading, hitting a trough when shares dropped 4%. The airline group rallied towards the end of the day's trading, closing down a more modest 1.4% lower.

Easyjet and Ryanair both finished the day higher than they had started, up 0.8% and 2.3% respectively. Ryanair had a particularly strong day on the back of strong results, including record annual profits.

The pound crept up against the dollar and the euro by 0.2%, to $1.2871 and €1.1504.

Finals
LondonMetric Property, Nature Group, Telford Homes

AGMs
Barr (A.G.), Central Asia Metals, Cluff Natural Resources, e-Therapeutics, Ingenta, Styles & Wood Group, Tekcapital

UK Economic Announcements
(00:01) GFK Consumer Confidence
(09:30) Consumer Credit
(09:30) Mortgage Approvals

 

COLUMNS OF NOTE

Matthew Parris, writing in The Times, analyses Jeremy Corbyn’s past associations with the IRA and explains why he believes Corbyn isn’t being hurt by the issue as much as people in the media would like to believe.
 
Harry De Quetteville, writing in The Telegraph, argues that Donald Trump is right about Germany and that Angela Merkel knows this. He argues that Trump’s prescription may in many ways be good medicine for Germany in the long run.

 

DID YOU KNOW?

Twelve men have walked on the moon. The last manned mission, Apollo 17 took place in 1972.

 

PARLIAMENTARY HIGHLIGHTS

TODAY
House of Commons

In dissolution. The House will next sit on Monday 19th June.
 
House of Lords 
In dissolution. The House will next sit on Monday 19th June.

Scottish Parliament
Statement by the First Minister: Security in Scotland

Portfolio Questions: Economy, Jobs and Fair Work and Finance and Constitution

TOMORROW 
Scottish Parliament 

First Minister's Questions

Stage 1 Debate: Contract (Third Party Rights) (Scotland) Bill

Int Economic Announcements
(07:00) Import Price Index (GER)
(08:55) Unemployment Rate (GER)
(10:00) Unemployment Rate (EU)
(15:00) Pending Home Sales (US)